Victorian election 2026 polls: Coalition ahead, is One Nation slipping, and the four-leader forum on 17 November

By The Rundowns News Desk · Published 1 November 2026

Victorians vote on Saturday 28 November, four weeks from now. The two most recent published statewide polls both put the Liberal–National Coalition clearly ahead of Labor. Over the weekend there were also signs that One Nation's surge may be easing, and Opposition Leader Jess Wilson agreed to a four-leader televised forum on 17 November. Here's where things stand and what's still uncertain.

What happened

Newspoll (15–22 October). The Newspoll for The Australian gave the Coalition a 55–45 two-party-preferred lead over Labor, up from 52–48 in July. Primary votes were Coalition 33%, Labor 24%, One Nation 20%, Greens 14% and others 9%, from a sample of 1,017. Wilson led Premier Ben Carroll 48–34 as preferred premier. These figures are reported identically by The Conversation, The Poll Bludger and The Nightly.

Roy Morgan (26–29 October). Roy Morgan's SMS poll of 3,610 Victorians, published on 30 October, had the Coalition on 29.5% (up 3.5 points since 8–9 October), Labor on 22.5% (unchanged) and One Nation on 22% (down 3). The Greens were on 12.5%. On a two-party basis the Coalition led Labor 56–44. This comes from Roy Morgan and is matched by AAP. Roy Morgan says One Nation's support rose after its 3 October campaign launch but has since fallen back to about where it was beforehand.

The leaders' forum. Wilson had wanted a traditional one-on-one debate with Carroll. On Saturday she agreed instead to a four-way News24 / Herald Sun People's Forum with Carroll, Greens leader Ellen Sandell and One Nation's Victorian leader Warren Pickering. It's on Tuesday 17 November at 7.30pm AEDT: 90 minutes, hosted by Kieran Gilbert, with questions from 100 undecided voters. That's the night before early voting opens. Details come from News24 and TV Central, and AAP and Guardian Australia also report Wilson's decision.

Is One Nation losing steam?

The evidence is mixed, so treat it with care.

• Roy Morgan shows One Nation down 3 points in three weeks (25% to 22%). That's a published poll with a large sample, but it's a single pollster's trend.
• Newspoll had One Nation up a point to 20% compared with July, so it doesn't show a decline.
• Greens internal polling (single source, unverified). Guardian Australia reports polling commissioned by the Greens. It was run by the Online Research Unit from 14 to 26 October with an effective sample of 1,488, and it puts One Nation on 14% and the Greens on 15%. Its other primary votes were close to Newspoll's: Coalition 32%, Labor 25%. This is a party's own polling released to a single outlet, and Guardian Australia itself says it should be treated with caution. We haven't seen the full results.

Our reading: every recent published poll still has One Nation at around one-fifth of the vote. Any slip is from a high base, and pollsters disagree about its size.

Why it matters for Victoria

• A possible change of government. Labor has held office since 2014. According to The Conversation's analysis, a 55–45 result would let the Coalition win a lower-house majority without relying on One Nation.
• Regional seats are in play. A separate Roy Morgan poll of just 283 voters across Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham suggested One Nation could win three of those seats. That sample is very small, so read it as indicative only.
• The upper house. At these levels, minor parties are likely to have a big say in the Legislative Council, whoever forms government. Guardian Australia reports that the Greens' own estimate (unverified) has One Nation winning a similar number of upper-house seats to the Greens.
• Policy costings. Guardian Australia, citing The Australian, reports that the Parliamentary Budget Office costed a One Nation family policy package at $688.7m. That's well above the party's announced $136m, which One Nation said was an annual figure. We haven't seen the PBO document ourselves.

What's next

Expect more polls from Resolve (The Age), RedBridge, Freshwater (Herald Sun) and DemosAU before polling day. We'll update this page as they come out. Interest rates are also part of the cost-of-living backdrop: the RBA meets on Cup Day (see our RBA explainer).

How to read polls: each poll has a margin of error of roughly ±3 points, and statewide numbers don't translate neatly into individual seats. Polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. This page reports published polls and attributes party-commissioned polling. It doesn't endorse any party.