US midterms 2026 explained: what's at stake, the races to watch, and when results land in Australia

By The Rundowns News Desk · Published 1 November 2026

Americans vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November, US time. In Melbourne that means the first polls close around 10am on Wednesday 4 November, the day after Melbourne Cup Day and the Reserve Bank's rate decision. Donald Trump isn't on the ballot, but control of Congress is, and with it how much he can get done in his last two years. Here's what's being decided, the races to watch, and when to expect results in Australian time.

What's being decided

Congress has two chambers, and both must pass a bill before it becomes law (USAGov). On the ballot this year, according to The Guardian and Al Jazeera:

• All 435 House of Representatives seats. Members serve two-year terms, so every seat is up every time. A party needs 218 for a majority.
• 35 of the Senate's 100 seats. That's 33 regular contests plus special elections in Florida and Ohio, to fill the rest of the terms left by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Of the 35, Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13.
• Governors in 36 states (plus three territories, per The Guardian), thousands of state legislative seats, and ballot measures on issues including taxes, abortion rights and voting rules.

The new Congress is sworn in on 3 January 2027.

The numbers: what each side needs

House. Republicans hold 218 seats and Democrats 214. One independent, Kevin Kiley of California, generally votes with Speaker Mike Johnson, and two seats are vacant, one last held by each party (ABC News US, Al Jazeera). Al Jazeera and NBC say Democrats need a net gain of three seats. The Guardian says four. The gap comes down to how the vacancies and the independent are counted, so treat it as three or four.

Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats. Democrats hold 45, plus two independents who vote with them, for 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. A 50-50 split keeps Republicans in control, because Vice President Vance breaks ties (ABC News US, Al Jazeera, The Guardian).

History favours the party out of power. The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms since 1946 (The Guardian). The ABC, citing Gallup data, says presidents with approval below 50% have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats. It puts Trump's approval at about 37% on the Silver Bulletin polling average. One big caveat: redistricting has cut the number of genuinely competitive House seats. The Guardian cites a Reuters estimate of only about 40 to 50 truly competitive races, which makes it harder to turn a national swing into seats.

The races to watch

These are the Senate contests The Guardian lists as key battlegrounds:

• Texas: Democrat James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994.
• Maine: Republican Susan Collins defends her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson.
• Ohio (special): Democrat Sherrod Brown is trying to return to the Senate against Republican Jon Husted.
• Michigan (open seat): Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is trying to hold the seat Gary Peters is leaving.
• Georgia: Democrat Jon Ossoff against Republican Mike Collins.
• Also in play: Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire.

Polls shift, so check the live ratings from NBC News or the BBC results page rather than relying on a snapshot.

What voters say matters

The Guardian reports that cost of living tops the polls: food, housing, fuel and healthcare. Immigration enforcement, the war in Iran, tariffs, AI and data centres, abortion rights and voting rules also feature. Concerns about election administration are a live issue too. The Guardian reports disputes over federal access to voter rolls and plans for federal monitors at polling places. The ABC notes a bipartisan group has sought pledges from politicians to accept the results.

When results land in Australia

US clocks went back an hour on Sunday 1 November, so US Eastern time is now 16 hours behind Melbourne and Sydney (AEDT). Approximate poll-closing times in AEDT on Wednesday 4 November, converted by us from standard US closing times:

• About 10am: the first polls close, in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.
• 11am to noon: most East Coast states close, including Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Maine and Texas (most of it).
• 2pm to 3pm: Mountain and Pacific states close, including California.
• About 5pm: the last polls close, in Alaska's Aleutian Islands.

The ABC says most votes should be counted on US election night, but close races can take days to call because each state counts and reports differently. If the House or Senate comes down to a handful of tight seats, expect the final answer to take longer than Wednesday.

How to follow it: ABC News will run special coverage from 10am AEDT on Wednesday, plus a live blog. 9News coverage starts with an early edition of Today at 5am AEDT, with updates through the day (Nine).

Why it matters here

A Democratic win in either chamber would force Trump to negotiate on laws and budgets and open his administration to congressional investigations. A Democratic Senate could also block or delay appointments, including ambassadors and judges (ABC, The Guardian). For Australia, that shapes the policy environment on trade and tariffs, AUKUS and defence funding, and the broader US relationship. That's our reading of the stakes, not a forecast of any specific policy change. Nine says its coverage will examine the implications for the Australia–US relationship and for markets.

What's next

We'll update this explainer on Wednesday 4 November AEDT as races are called and control of each chamber becomes clear.

Seat counts and polling figures are as reported by the linked outlets as of late October 2026. Poll-closing times in AEDT are our approximate conversions and can vary by county within a state.