Thunderstorm asthma: what Saturday's high-risk forecast means for the rest of Victoria's pollen season

By The Rundowns News Desk · Published 1 November 2026

Victoria's Chief Health Officer put three Gippsland districts and the Northern Country on a high thunderstorm asthma risk forecast for Saturday 31 October. Forecasts run every day until 31 December, so here is how they work and what to do when the next one goes red.

What happened

Chief Health Officer Dr Caroline McElnay warned that high grass pollen and a particular type of thunderstorm could bring on asthma symptoms in many people over a short period (South Gippsland Sentinel-Times). ABC News reported that the elevated risk covered all three Gippsland districts and the Northern Country region, which takes in Shepparton and Bendigo. The Bureau of Meteorology forecast a low-pressure trough to cross the state from west to east during the day (ABC News).

Mercy Health's published alert put the risk at high in Northern Country, East Gippsland and West & South Gippsland, and moderate in the Mallee, Wimmera, North East, North Central and Central districts (Mercy Health). The Bendigo Advertiser reported that a VicEmergency advice warning covered towns including Inglewood, Echuca, Shepparton and Euroa (Bendigo Advertiser).

Unconfirmed: At the time of writing, we had not found an official statement on whether Saturday's storms caused an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event or an unusual number of hospital presentations. We'll update this article if health authorities report one.

Why it matters locally

• Melbourne knows the worst case. ABC News notes that the November 2016 thunderstorm asthma event in Melbourne was the world's largest. Ten people died and thousands needed urgent medical care.
• There may be more pollen this year. Dr McElnay told the ABC that pollen experts had advised there is more grass pollen around after a wetter winter and spring, which may make high-risk forecasts more likely. She also said it was too early to say what the season would be like.
• Early November is the usual peak. Dr McElnay said early November is generally a time of heightened thunderstorm asthma conditions in Victoria.
• The people at risk aren't only diagnosed asthmatics. The Department of Health says people with current, past or undiagnosed asthma, or with spring hay fever, are at risk. Having both conditions, or poorly controlled asthma, raises the risk further (health.vic.gov.au).

How the forecast works

The Department of Health publishes the epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk forecast from 1 October to 31 December. Each forecast covers three days, and they are published on VicEmergency. The colours mean:

• Green (low): the conditions for an event are not expected.
• Orange (moderate): one of the conditions (high pollen, or a severe storm with strong winds) may be present.
• Red (high): high pollen is forecast and severe thunderstorms with strong winds are likely.

The department says a forecast is not a formal warning. A high forecast does not mean an event is certain, and a low forecast does not rule one out.

What to do on a high-risk day

1. Stay indoors during the wind gusts before and during a storm. Close doors and windows, and turn off air conditioners that draw in outside air, such as evaporative coolers.
2. Carry your reliever puffer. Relievers are available from pharmacies without a prescription, according to the health advice published by Mercy Health.
3. Review your asthma action plan and learn the four steps of asthma first aid.
4. Watch for wheezing, breathlessness, chest tightness or a persistent cough.
5. Call triple zero (000) if someone isn't breathing, if their asthma suddenly gets worse or isn't improving, or if they're having an attack and have no reliever. For non-emergency advice, call Nurse on Call on 1300 60 60 24 or use the Victorian Virtual Emergency Department at ved.vic.gov.au (as reported by the Sentinel-Times).

What's next

Forecasts are updated twice a day on the VicEmergency website and app, and you can set a "watch zone" for your area. The season runs until 31 December. This article is general information, not medical advice. Talk to your GP or pharmacist about your own asthma or hay fever plan.