Will the US strike Iran again after the midterms? What we know, and what it could mean for petrol prices in Australia

By The Rundowns News Desk · Published 1 November 2026 · Updated 1 November 2026

The United States and Israel are reported to be ready to resume strikes on Iran once Tuesday's US midterm elections are over. At the same time, Iranian negotiators were in talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Saturday. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says President Donald Trump hasn't decided whether to strike and would prefer a diplomatic outcome. For Australians, the big risk is fuel. Petrol already averaged around $2.38 a litre nationally in late October, and anything that disrupts the Strait of Hormuz again could push it higher.

Update, 1 November: Australia's position and a softer tone from Tehran

• Wong urges no new strikes. Speaking in Atlanta after the G20 foreign ministers' meeting, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia had made its view clear, including in a meeting with Rubio: "We want to see an end to the escalation, we want to see de-escalation, and we want to see negotiations – and for the conflict to be resolved and for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened." She linked higher fuel, grocery and transport costs from the wars to the youth-led protests in France, Germany and elsewhere (The Age, also published by the SMH; this is a single newsroom's report).
• Rubio still says no decision. Rubio again said Trump hadn't decided on further strikes and preferred a diplomatic solution, while noting "there are some issues in the world that cannot be solved peacefully" (The Age; Gulf News). The Age says the G20 communiqué mentioned energy disruptions but contained no specific initiatives to address them.
• Tehran's tone shifts, but no deal. Gulf News reports that Rezaei said the tone of Vance's letter had "changed completely", and that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera the US attempt to reopen dialogue was "a positive step", while saying Iran isn't ready for direct talks. We've only seen these quotes in Gulf News so far, and positive language isn't an agreement.

What happened

The war began on 28 February, when the US and Israel attacked Iran. A ceasefire was reached in April, and fighting between Washington and Tehran resumed in July (Anadolu, Al Jazeera). Iran's then supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the first attacks, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei replaced him (Al Jazeera, Reuters).

Here's what has been reported in the past week:

• Strike planning. Al Jazeera, citing The New York Times, reports that the US and Israel have drawn up joint plans to attack Iran after the 3 November midterms. It also cites The Wall Street Journal, which reports that US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper briefed Trump on options for renewed attacks. Reuters reports that countries in the region expect Trump could restart attacks once voting is over.
• No decision yet. Rubio said on Saturday that Trump has not decided whether to launch new strikes. He said "talks have actually never stopped" and that Trump would "prefer to solve it diplomatically" (Reuters).
• Diplomacy is still running. According to a source briefed on the negotiations, Iranian envoys met Qatari mediators in Doha on Saturday, after more than 12 hours of talks in Tehran on Friday (Reuters). Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, which the New York Times and Wall Street Journal described as an attempt to restart talks. Trump has played the letter down, saying it was only about medical supplies (Reuters).
• Iran's warning. In a statement on Saturday, Mojtaba Khamenei said any threat must be met with an "immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response" (Reuters; also reported by AP). Reuters also reports that Rezaei said Tehran was debating whether to lift its ban on nuclear weapons if fighting resumes, but that no decision had been taken.

What's not confirmed

• A 4 November date. MSNOW, citing three Gulf Arab officials, reported that Washington warned Gulf allies to prepare for possible strikes as early as 4 November, the day after the midterms (via The Times of Israel). We have only seen this from one original report, and the White House said it does not comment on military plans. If it happened on 4 November US time, that would be 4 to 5 November in Melbourne.
• Israel's readiness. The report that Israel has finished preparing for renewed fighting comes from Yedioth Ahronoth, citing unnamed sources (via Anadolu).
• Tanker attacks. Iranian state media reported last week that tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Chris Bowen, the federal minister for climate change and energy, said on 31 October he was aware of the reports but had no further information (transcript). We haven't seen independent confirmation of the details.

What's blocking a deal

Reuters reports that Iran has been proposing its own seven-day plan since September. Under that plan, the US would lift its blockade of Iranian ports, unfreeze Iranian assets and approve an Iranian-backed route through the Strait of Hormuz, and then the strait would reopen. Trump has rejected it so far. Iran told Reuters that a separate seven-day trust-building plan put forward by Qatar was not satisfactory. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has listed seven conditions, including lifting sanctions and guarantees against further strikes (Al Jazeera, citing Tasnim).

Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera don't agree on what happens next. Paul Musgrave of Georgetown University in Qatar said the simplest reading is that "the United States is getting ready to carry out substantial attacks relatively soon". Andreas Krieg of King's College London said Vance's outreach suggests Washington has "second thoughts", but that the risk of war would "increase exponentially" after 3 November. These are opinions, not forecasts we can verify.

Why it matters in Australia: fuel

Australia imports most of its fuel, and local prices follow international benchmarks. The Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) says the Singapore petrol benchmark, plus shipping costs and Australian taxes, makes up almost the entire wholesale price of petrol here. That means a ship doesn't need to be turned away from Australia for prices here to rise. Supply trouble in the Gulf lifts the regional benchmark, and Australian prices follow.

• Where prices are now. The AIP's report for the week ending 25 October puts the national average for regular unleaded at 238.4c a litre, with an average wholesale price of 226.3c. Melbourne's daily average fell from 232.1c on 19 October to 222.2c on 23 October.
• How we got here. The SMH reported on 12 October that national unleaded had climbed above $2.40 for the first time in more than six months, as attacks on tankers around Hormuz fed fears of a global oil shortage. Diesel was around $2.83.
• Supply. On 31 October, Bowen said Australia held 34 days of diesel and 29 days of jet fuel, with 43 ships on the way and 3.1 billion litres booked for delivery over the next four weeks. He asked Australians to buy "as much fuel as they need, no more, no less". The transcript cuts off the petrol figure, so we haven't included it.

Our reading is that renewed strikes, or Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure, would likely push benchmarks up quickly. Prices at the bowser usually follow with a lag as stations restock. A deal that reopens Hormuz would push the other way. Neither outcome is confirmed.

What to do if you drive in Melbourne

• Melbourne prices move in cycles. Prices fell through late October, so it makes sense to fill up during the cheap part of the cycle rather than waiting for headlines.
• Don't panic-buy. The government says supply is secure, and stocking up is exactly what Bowen asked people not to do.
• Petrol is one more cost-of-living pressure in a week when the RBA is widely expected to raise rates on Tuesday. See our RBA explainer.

What's next

US polls close on Tuesday US time, and results start arriving on Wednesday 4 November AEDT. See our midterms explainer. Watch the Qatar talks, any response from Iran to Vance's letter, and the AIP and ACCC weekly price updates. We'll update this post if strikes resume, a deal is announced, or the government changes its fuel advice.

General information only. Military plans and timelines are as reported by the linked outlets, often citing unnamed officials, and have not been officially confirmed. Analysts' views are attributed and are opinion. Fuel price figures come from the Australian Institute of Petroleum and the SMH as dated.