Australia's 2026–27 cyclone season starts today: why El Niño points to a quieter year, and why the north still needs to prepare

By The Rundowns News Desk · Published 1 November 2026

Australia's official tropical cyclone season began today, 1 November, and runs to 30 April. Seasonal modelling cited by the ABC suggests 2026–27 could be one of the quietest on record, with five to eight named storms in the Australian region. A season usually brings about 10. A quieter season still isn't a safe one, though, and here's why.

What the forecast says

The Bureau of Meteorology no longer issues an official seasonal cyclone outlook for Australia. The ABC reports that the BoM has said climate change reduced the accuracy of the statistical models it used to rely on. Instead, forecasters look at physical climate models.

According to the ABC, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble gives a likely range of five to eight named storms in the Australian region this season, compared with a long-term average of 11. About two-thirds of its 51 model runs land inside that range. The independent Southwest Pacific outlook from Earth Sciences New Zealand (14 Oct) reports the same ECMWF signal in its own words. It says ECMWF guidance points to about 60 per cent of the normal number of cyclones in the Australian region, about 55 to 60 per cent of the normal number of severe ones, and accumulated cyclone energy at around 60 per cent of normal.

The averages depend on which baseline you use. The ABC's figure is 11. The BoM's own season statistics put the average at 10 per season since 1980–81, with 3 to 4 crossing the coast at cyclone strength, and say the average since 2000 has been closer to 8 to 9.

Important caveat: the five-to-eight range comes from a single model. The ABC itself notes that the final count could easily fall outside it.

Why El Niño matters

The BoM's climate driver update says El Niño is still strengthening. The weekly relative Niño3.4 index hit +2.88°C in the week ending 25 October, the highest in the bureau's weekly dataset, which dates from 2008. All models forecast the warming to peak around November or December and stay above El Niño thresholds into autumn 2027. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also under way.

The ABC explains that El Niño suppresses Australian cyclones through cooler waters off the northern coast, less moisture, a weaker monsoon and less convection. Since 1970, El Niño years have averaged about seven or eight cyclones, while La Niña years have averaged about 12. The BoM says sea temperatures to the north and north-east (the Arafura and Coral seas) are currently average to slightly below average.

Where activity is expected to be lowest and highest

• Biggest expected drop: off Western Australia in the Indian Ocean, and the central and southern Coral Sea (ECMWF, via the ABC).
• Near-normal activity: waters off the Northern Territory, the Gulf of Carpentaria and near the Queensland coast (ABC).
• Further east, in the Pacific islands: it's the opposite story. The NZ outlook expects normal-to-elevated activity, with 7 to 11 named storms across the Southwest Pacific and higher risk near and east of the International Date Line. That matters if you're travelling to Fiji, Samoa, the Cook Islands or French Polynesia this summer.

Why the north still needs to prepare

• Every season has hit the coast so far. The BoM says at least one tropical cyclone has crossed the Australian coast in every season on record.
• Fewer doesn't mean weaker. Both the BoM and the ABC say the long-term trend is toward fewer cyclones overall but a higher share of category 4 and 5 systems. Rising sea levels also make storm surge worse.
• Timing: on average the first cyclone crosses the coast in late December (BoM). The earliest coastal crossings on record were 21 November, in 1973 and again in 2025 (Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina).
• Last season had 11 tropical cyclones, five of which reached the coast (ABC).
• The BoM also notes that weaker tropical lows and cyclones that never make landfall can still cause flooding, damaging winds and coastal impacts, sometimes well inland and further south.

What it means if you're in Victoria

Cyclones don't reach Melbourne, but ex-tropical systems can feed moisture south and help drive heavy rain events. More directly, plenty of Victorians head to far north Queensland, the Top End or the Pacific islands over the summer holidays. If you're booking, check your travel insurance's cyclone and weather exclusions, and follow official warnings from the BoM (or the local met service overseas) once you're there.

What's next

From November the BoM publishes a weekly Tropical Climate Update that includes cyclone potential. ESNZ says it will update the Pacific outlook in January 2027 if needed. We'll update this explainer if the first system forms early or the El Niño outlook changes. In the meantime, see our guide to thunderstorm asthma season in Victoria.

Forecast figures are model guidance, not certainty. For warnings, always use the Bureau of Meteorology and your state emergency service.